In the light of the blockchain technology development, there are both optimists and their opponents. In general, the situation is clear, since history knows similar cases. For example, the story of Henry Ford teaches us that if there is an idea, then it must be implemented urgently and not postponed for later. The result was the emergence of the popular and mass-produced Ford T. Although it had previously been prophesied to him – firewood is the future, not the internal combustion engine. The relatively recent story of the “dotcoms” (companies operating on the Internet) also taught us a lot. At the beginning of the 2000s, the popularization of Internet technologies has started. At the same time, this trend was accompanied by a low threshold for the cost of investment capital, which in turn caused the “dot-com boom” or hype. The bubble burst, investors fled. But time has shown how the Internet has spread and proved its usefulness. The growth dynamics of the stocks of such giants as Google and Amazon within 10 years speaks for itself.
Let’s talk about the “success story” of the blockchain technology. At first, no one knew what it was, then a gradual introduction and usability improvement were followed by crowdfunding and ICO. One sentence can easily describe the current history. At the same time, it comes to mind, how much humanity is not ready for drastic changes – or the more global the system is, the more inert its replacement with the old one will be. Most likely, this thesis is relevant. In the end, we witnessed a hype and a sharp drop – some startups have shut down and underestimated their capabilities, some turned out to be fraudsters, and only a few survived in a wave of pessimism and lost hopes. Those are the “whales” of the industry, roughly like from the dot-com period of Google and Amazon.
As for the beginning of 2019, the analysis of the news background has shown that the struggle between pessimists and optimists continues. The first signal in favor of the optimists was the announcement of the head of the Nasdaq stock exchange, Adena Friedman, saying that this technology has great prospects. At the same time, she added that the blockchain deserves to become an integral part of the future economy. The head of the exchange also mentioned that the state administration contradicts the idea of decentralized cryptocurrency regulation.
It is known that the Nasdaq exchange is moving towards the blockchain network and is doing everything possible to develop this technology. The head of the auction host also claims that cryptocurrencies have not yet been able to gain a sufficient level of trust, and significant work is being done on this.
The other optimist of the beginning of this year was Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang. A successful businessman declares that the world of cryptocurrency is now in stagnation after the hype. The question is how quickly the trust will be restored and how effectively the technology will take root after a recession of excessive popularity.
A well-known member of the crypto industry, Charlie Shrem, said that the blockchain technology “will survive a nuclear disaster.” According to him, unlike banks, which will be completely paralyzed in case of such a tragedy, electronic money will be more appropriate than ever.
Crypto-pessimists such as analysts JP Morgan say that cryptocurrencies are not secured. Their forecast for Bitcoin says that it will drop to $2,400, and then much lower since it is within the framework of the downward trend. Such pragmatism is still caused by a decrease in the capitalization of the digital currency market, which is at a low level comparing to the beginning of 2018.
In the end, we can see the confrontation between two elements – innovators and conservatives. The victory of innovators is determined over time, and the defeat of conservatives is almost inevitable – for the simple reason that everything develops and does not stand still.